Diary

I have been preoccupied for a few days with a visitor and therefore have not spent much time thinking about this blog. I have also been casually reading two books. One, I decided, wasn't worth the time, and the other, though of some interest to me, is on an obscure topic that would not interest many readers, so I'm setting it aside for now. I did, however, also receive a new book by Giorgio Vallortigara, which looks very promising, and I will be starting on it soon.

We had a few dry, sunny autumnal days, and the leaves are past their peak colors. They are now falling rapidly, with wind and rain at the moment. It is relatively warm for this time of year, and it may not cool off significantly for several weeks. I still have a few edible tomatoes left.

There remains the background noise of the Trump administration and Washington politics, which, as I've said, I try not to dwell on. While I'm reluctant to make an explicit prediction about Trump's demise, it does currently seem to be proceeding at an accelerating pace. His popularity is continuing to decline. He hasn't created new jobs and the economy is somewhat stagnant. The Republican-controlled Congress also isn't producing results which will encourage ordinary workers. Generally, healthcare costs will rise and government services will be reduced. Trump's tariff plan still seems like a fiasco and is unlikely to produce desirable results. His skill in international diplomacy is pretty much nonexistent. Under conditions like this, he tends distract from his incompetence with actions that violate the Constitution in new ways. I think that he may have imagined that by this point in his current term he would have charged up the economy so that he would win votes, but that isn't happening. As of now, he may be more inclined to contemplate an actual takeover of the U.S. government with the military. However, since such an action would be considered unacceptable by the Supreme Court, Congress and nearly all voters, it would be far more challenging than anything that he has attempted so far. While he has been able to control the U.S. military up to now, his actions could precipitate a rebellion within the military, and, in the end, he might be found guilty of treason. I don't think that he has the intellectual resources to extract himself from this mess of his own making, and the Republicans and the billionaires aren't really his friends and will dump him at some point. Furthermore, the "No Kings" movement has a lot of momentum currently and is unlikely to dissipate.

The other aspect of this, that I've mentioned before, is investing. The uncertainty of the effects of Trump's tariff plan has been evaporating. But there is still uncertainty over the AI industry and the meme investing that has been revived recently. Under these conditions, I now have a fairly normal portfolio. I had large portions in money markets and gold for a while, but I have recently returned to stocks.