Diary

This summer is turning out to be a little muggier than usual, but the actual temperatures here haven't been that high. The main effect for me is that I'm getting a little less exercise than usual. The trails are no longer muddy. The garden is doing well, and the tomatoes are ahead of schedule: I've already eaten a couple of cherry tomatoes.  I've put up a removable fence around them, which is a little inconvenient, though it is quite adequate for deer protection. I see deer during the day here and elsewhere, and the population seems to be high at the moment. The deer have been passing through the yard without much munching so far, and the hostas are starting to flower, unassaulted. I also see a fox occasionally, which I like, because I think that they help control the mouse population. I haven't seen a bobcat so far this year; that may be because they don't like being seen and have noticed me. I do have some bats, and one sleeps in a large crack at the back of the house. I installed a bat house high up on the wall, but it has been unused so far. There isn't currently as much insect or hummingbird activity as there was earlier. Though there are still some flowers, there aren't many now compared to May.

My telescope arrangement is turning out to be a drawn-out saga. Everything is set up now, but there has been a malfunction in the electronics, and they're mailing me a new module from Burbank. Unless there is another surprise, that should be the final delay. I really enjoy the personal touch from Losmandy. They have extremely good customer service and are highly accessible. When I had problems with my Chinese iOptron mount, there was no help. Brian Losmandy, in contrast, has made lots of videos for users. Here is a good example of one, with his father, Scott Losmandy,  pretending to assemble a mount like mine in the background (it's a short repeating loop). The mount itself is quite solid and more heavy-duty than my previous one.

As I've said, the whole Trump phenomenon is really boring, and it's like being forced to watch a third-rate sitcom. However, it seems to me that Trump has already reached the point of no return, and his decline has actually started. I think that most intelligent people knew before the election that Trump is generally incompetent as a leader, political or otherwise. But that wasn't a disincentive for some of them, who saw this as an opportunity to advance their careers. As time passes, it becomes increasingly apparent that Trump has no understanding of economics, history, science or the U.S. Constitution, and that he considers himself above the law. When you add the fact that he has no empathy whatsoever, even though he has hired coaches to help him seem empathic occasionally, he is an altogether unappealing person, particularly for a politician. It is very gradually dawning on some people that he has nothing to offer that would benefit people outside his circle. Anyone who follows business or economic news has to notice that his haphazard decision-making process could cost the world trillions of dollars for no reason other than making Trump think that he is important. The man is really stupid. I think that Elon Musk should have handed out free "I'm With Stupid" T-shirts to Trump's appointees and all of the Republicans in Congress and on the Supreme Court instead of joining DOGE. With the retirement of Thom Tillis from the Senate, we may be seeing the beginnings of Trump's abandonment by the Republican Party.

My social life doesn't amount to much, but this is somewhat offset by never having to associate with shallow social climbers. I still get a certain amount of enjoyment from striking up conversations with strangers. I think that the quality of most people's private lives has been getting worse for several years, and many of them can be drawn out a little if you provide them with an opportunity. I also have some family activities to occupy my time. Unexpectedly, my grandson is turning out to be a prodigy on my favorite instrument, the piano.

I haven't been reading much but may report on my current book on my next post.

If a Lion Could Talk II

I first posted on this topic, regarding Ludwig Wittgenstein's view of language, over ten years ago. My ideas have evolved quite a bit since then, and I decided that I should update what I had to say on the original post. In that post, I outlined how a lion might at least understand some human symbolic language if it were given the right exposure. This was based on the fact that some dogs do understand at least one symbolic action: the meaning of pointing. Similarly, domestic cats also understand some symbolic communications made by humans. Therefore, if cats and dogs could speak, we would definitely be able to understand them to some extent. I didn't mention it at the time, but dolphins, whales, elephants and other mammals have their own languages which, with further study, we might be able to understand. As far as I know, Wittgenstein never owned a pet.

Wittgenstein would be technically correct in the sense that all species have their individual evolutionary paths, so their priorities might be completely different from ours and unintelligible to us. However, the languages of organisms are probably all survival-related, hence it would not necessarily be difficult to decipher them. Many animals make sounds indicating the presence of dangers in their immediate environment that would be easy for us to understand through observation. Similarly, it wouldn't be hard to figure out calls for help. The fact that we have complex symbolic language is the result of our development of bipedal gait, our close cooperation with each other over thousands of years, and the changes that occurred in our brain function that became encoded in our genes and permitted us to survive as a species. I would say that Wittgenstein didn't realize that language starts as a kind of noise-making that has survival benefits, and, if you look at various noise-making species, I don't think that it is necessarily difficult to interpret a noise-making behavior if you examine it in the context in which it is made.

I also mentioned Noam Chomsky, who has said that we don't understand how language works in the human brain. In the context of AI, he thought that we could never teach AI how to think, because we don't know how we think. This was before the development of large language models, which are currently at the forefront of AI. I don't study the research in these fields, but it appears to me that, although words, grammar and usage did develop in human brains, it isn't necessary to have a human brain or human learning techniques to learn languages. In fact, it is probably likely that all of our ideas could be expressed without human brains or human language. I think that the messiness of neural development, as described by Robert Sapolsky, indicates that languages that perform better than ours could probably be developed. That is because our languages developed through the rather haphazard process of natural selection. In natural selection, what counts is not necessarily the development of the best possible system, and it all boils down to whether each successive generation survives or dies. This is why I expect AGI to be developed before long, and I see no reason why it would have to function much like the human brain. 

Wittgenstein, I now think, received far more credit than he deserved as a philosopher. Because of his personality and his initial acceptance by English academics, he never had to argue or publish his positions after he received his job at Cambridge. It sounds to me as if most of his career involved lectures with no discussion, at which his devotees simply took notes. That was certainly a dream job!

The Federal Reserve

This is a sort of unusual topic for me, but I decided to write a little about it because Donald Trump has been attacking Jerome Powell, who is the current chairman of the Federal Reserve. As an investor, I have been following the Federal Reserve for many years. In case you don't know, the Federal Reserve was set up partially to depoliticize policy decisions regarding the financial system in the U.S. and to protect it from abuse by political operatives. I think it important to understand this, especially now, when news coverage is clearly inadequate. I'm getting very tired of PBS NewsHour.

After I graduated from college in 1972, inflation gradually rose to high levels. At that time, I also think that the U.S. economy began to restructure due to foreign manufacturing competition, particularly from Japan. The Vietnam War, which was unjustified, was also costly, and a strong inflationary trend developed. Political parties tend to kick the can down the road, such that they can blame their errors on future administrations. During this process, the Johnson, Nixon and Ford administrations oversaw inflationary pressures that lasted for several years. By the time that Jimmy Carter became president in 1977, inflation was taking off. Carter appointed Paul Volcker chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1979, and he served until 1987. During Volcker's tenure, the Federal Reserve took draconian actions in which they intentionally raised interest rates in order to reduce inflation. My first house was purchased with a 13% mortgage rate in 1980. Volcker is now considered to have been one of the best chairmen. Later on, Alan Greenspan got mixed reviews as chairman, because he mishandled the dot-com bubble in 2000 and laid the groundwork for the Great Recession, from 2007 to 2009, by deemphasizing financial regulation before he left in 2006.

In my opinion, Jerome Powell is doing a good job as chairman, as was Janet Yellen, his predecessor, and he has generally been reducing inflation and improving employment since the pandemic, his two main mandates. The situation with Trump now is so transparent that, to a knowledgeable audience, he is simply confirming to them that he is ignorant and self-centered. Trump and his advisors want to forestall an economic slowdown, with unemployment, by introducing economic stimulus through interest rate reductions, which would cause inflation. Trump's tariff program is inflationary. So far, because the Federal Reserve is specifically designed to prevent rash policy actions promoted by politicians, and because Trump can't replace him until next year, when his term ends, we still have some protections. Trump wanted to remove Powell ahead of time, but he seems to have received enough pushback to stop for now. Even so, he continues to belittle Powell publicly, not caring that Powell is obviously more competent than he is.

I still can't predict the exact timing of the collapse of the Trump administration, but it seems to me that he has created a situation from which he will never recover. At the moment, it looks as if he will not succeed in creating any benefits for low- and middle-income voters, the Republicans will lose seats in congress, and he will generally lose his influence.

While I am still quite disappointed with how the news media has been handling the Trump phenomenon, there are now some pretty good voices out there. I particularly admire Jennifer Rubin, who currently communicates through The Contrarian. Ironically, Rubin was previously known as a conservative. What counts for me is that she has a brain that actually works and isn't a congenital money-grubber. From speaking to a couple of random Vermonters recently, I was also heartened to see that there is a simmering Trump hatred here, and probably everywhere – a positive sign indeed.