Diary

I'm entering my traditional summer doldrums period, during which I tend to lose interest in everything. My new telescope mount is taking a long time to become functional, I think because the electronics are not particularly well-designed for users. The company that made it is quite small, and the founder is a machinist, not an electrician or a software engineer. However, I don't think that there is a major design flaw, and I am gradually making it more functional. I don't exactly have a major stargazing project planned, so I'm not in any hurry. For me, stargazing has therapeutic benefits, and I have nothing in common with many stargazers, who, above all, value fancy-looking equipment. A large setup with a guide, a camera and lots of wiring looks impressive, but I would find astrophotography boring. I'd rather look at photographs taken by Vivian Maier, which I occasionally do.

The greater annoyance for me is having to watch the slow-motion collapse of the Trump administration. What is particularly annoying is that, during much of my life, the primary political leaders, particularly in the U.S. and U.K., have been, in my estimation, incompetent, if you hold them up to any standard. Generally, they are unversed in science, geopolitics and economics and are in the pockets of greedy capitalists. Most of them seem to be completely out of their depth intellectually. Many people liked Ronald Reagan, because he seemed like a nice guy, but I don't think that he had any significant achievements; his "trickle-down economics" was a complete fantasy, and it has since been disproven as a valid economic concept. The fact that the Soviet Union collapsed while he was president was purely coincidental, and, during his second term, he was barely aware of some of the undercover activities undertaken by his administration. I think that George W. Bush lied to initiate the Iraq War, which in hindsight served no purpose. The Vietnam War was a multi-presidential war, involving Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon and Ford, and is now generally thought to have been unnecessary.

Regarding Trump, the one good idea that he has is that wars are bad. In his case, he may only dislike them because they are expensive. Given his background, if, rather than coming from a long line of opportunistic grifters, he had come from a long line of military suppliers, he would probably think that wars are great. What is remarkable to me is that Trump's limitations have been known for some time, yet he still receives little public criticism. It isn't at all difficult to see that his plan, to the extent that it is coherent, will never succeed. While the idea of restructuring the world's economic ecosystem isn't necessarily bad in itself, you must first consider how complex such an operation would be. It is mindbogglingly complex and would ideally follow years of analysis, discussion and negotiation with the countries concerned. Even if Trump manages to push through his plan, many aspects of it haven't been examined closely enough to be considered plausible. The one that strikes me the most is that this is supposed to bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S. You don't need any particular expertise to see that, with the long-term evolution of world economies and the increasing use of new technologies, it is simply not possible to recreate a 1960's-style manufacturing environment in the U.S. Trump is so ignorant that he probably doesn't understand one of the foundations of modern economics: comparative advantage. This is a model that still seems to work, and it was first put forth by Adam Smith in 1776. One of the benefits of market forces is that they often reach balances on their own if the markets are not heavily regulated. Though, obviously, some regulations are appropriate, free trade did help many countries, including the U.S., and was easy to implement, because it didn't involve an extensive analysis, which, frankly, would exceed human cognition. Doing the opposite does in fact exceed human cognition, and it is extremely likely that Trump's tariff policies, if he implements them, will be followed by years of unintended consequences and may take decades to correct. With AI and robotics, unemployment is about to take off, and nothing that Trump is doing addresses that. Of course, there are more people than Trump involved in this process, and to see just how badly the U.S. economy is being managed, consider that Russell Vought, who is associated with the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025, is a Christian nationalist and a lawyer with little economic experience, and he currently influences Trump's policy decisions.

The picture emerging for Trump is that his initiatives will damage the Federal government, reduce economic growth, increase inflation, alienate allies, and, ultimately, that his supporters will feel betrayed.

To end on a more upbeat note, one new activity that I've undertaken has been finding streams near the house, because my grandson likes them. There is one next to a nearby road that I took him to on his last visit. Last weekend, I walked in the woods behind the house and found a stream that wasn't near any roads. It's only a ten-minute walk each way, on a good trail, and I may go there occasionally.