Saturday, January 13, 2018

Diary

Over the last year, I have enjoyed finally being able to put my investment experience and M.B.A. to practical use and make money in the stock market. Because my investment strategy involves greater allocation in foreign markets than is the norm, I was outperformed by U.S. markets until recently, but that pattern has changed, and now the U.S. is being outperformed elsewhere. After taking some profits, I bought a new car with cash and still have a larger portfolio than I did a few months ago. Stocks should advance globally for at least another year, and I plan to increase my bond allocation as interest rates continue to rise. When inflation increases, I will also invest in commodities.

It irks me that the Republicans, with gerrymandering, effective media campaigns and the buying of partisan economists, manage to attract a sufficient number of voters to get elected to Congress. The new tax law and deregulation are providing a temporary boost to an economy that was already doing well in 2016, but there is little in the news media to explain what the long-term costs will be. We are approaching the end of the business cycle, which will probably end in another stock market crash and a recession. In the meantime, wealthy people will have accrued nearly all of the benefits of the recent legislation, the wealth gap will increase, most Americans will still have low-paying jobs, and the national debt will start to balloon. The federal government increasingly resembles a nightmare. On the bright side, there is a good chance that Trump will be removed from or voluntarily leave office before the end of his first term, and a recession in 2019 or 2020 could put a stop to Republican control of Congress for a time. It is even possible that Congress will flip next November. I would rather not think about these things, since I don't really care about politics, but it is incumbent upon me to do so, given that the present behavior of the U.S. government is one of the greatest risks I face, along with everyone else. It may well be that the ignorance and short-term thinking of the current Republican leadership are at the most dangerous levels they've reached in American history.

My new car, which I'll pick up on Monday, is a 2018 Volkswagen Golf GTI Autobahn. Technically, I didn't need it, since my previous car ran fine and still had about 50,000 miles left in it. However, it was getting rusty and riskier for long road trips. This is the first time in my life that I've had a lot of money to splurge, and I've wanted a GTI since the late 1970's. They were first sold in Europe and were not available in the U.S. until the early 1980's. This is a perfect vehicle for me, because it offers relatively high performance, good gas mileage and has the practicality of a hatchback. The one I bought is "loaded," with many features which I may or may not use.

In other news, I am adjusting to the end of the holiday season, which takes a ridiculously long time here. The guests are becoming more mature as they age and thus are more tolerable to be around, but the continued presence of visitors in the house for weeks at a time disrupts my habits, such as reading and writing, without replacing them with anything that I find equally interesting. I have to engage in increased self-editing, because I don't pass the political correctness test and don't want to upset anyone. Hence, I go on hold, into a kind of involuntary hibernation, from mid-December to mid-January. Now that the visitors have gone, global warming is throwing me off. Within a few days of each other, we had temperatures ranging from -23⁰ F to +58⁰ F. At the moment, the thermometer is heading back to -11⁰ F. These changes can be hard on the body, not to mention the flora and fauna. William liked being able to go outside without freezing, but seemed confused.

No comments:

Post a Comment